Author: Team

KEY FACTOR: PARTY PREFERENCES

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[vc_row][vc_column][vc_column_text]Voters ultimately make the decision as to who they preference, but many often follow the how-to-vote cards handed out by parties on election day.

As it stands, the Coalition has made a potentially valuable deal with Mr Clive Palmer’s United Australia Party. Mr Palmer will preference the Coalition second across all 151 lower-house seats and in return the Coalition will preference the United Australia party either second or third in the Senate.

The ALP criticised this move, with Senator Anthony Chisholm, who was accused of seeking a deal with Mr Palmer, commenting that Mr Palmer is ‘chaotic and dishonest’ and that ‘at no stage did I negotiate or offer Mr Palmer anything in regard to preferences. I was not authorised to offer anything, and I didn’t’.

Amongst other news concerning her party this election, Senator Pauline Hanson announced that One Nation would be giving preferential treatment to some Liberal candidates and all Nationals MPs.

Despite the controversy that surrounded Senator Fraser Anning and the subsequent resolution by the Morrison Government that One Nation would be preferenced last across the country, the Liberal National Party in Queensland will direct preferences to One Nation ahead of Labor and the Greens in some seats.

In a statement to the media, Deputy Prime Minister and Leader of the Nationals, the Hon Michael McCormack MP, said that the deal made sense, saying ‘the fact is Pauline Hanson acknowledges that our policies are more closely aligned with the interests and wants of her voters than the Greens or Labor’.

In response, the Prime Minister, the Hon Scott Morrison MP, distanced the Liberals from the Nationals, stating, ‘we’re two separate parties … The One Nation Party have made their decision, the Nationals have made their decision. So that’s a matter for the National Party’.[/vc_column_text][vc_zigzag][/vc_column][/vc_row][vc_row][vc_column][vc_column_text]

THESE INSIGHTs WERE PROVIDED BY THE TEAM AT NEXUS PUBLIC AFFAIRS.

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Industry key to boosting health and medical research

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[vc_row][vc_column][vc_column_text]The health industry’s R&D, including clinical trials, is a key contributor to Australia’s economy. The signatories of this media release – from the medical technologies, biotechnologies and pharmaceuticals industry sector and the health and medical research sector – urge all political parties to adopt a common approach to R&D and to take action to support health and medical research by supporting the conditions that allow industry to do its part.

Australia’s life sciences sector has been adding more than $4 billion gross value per annum (2010 – 2015) to Australia’s economy, employs over 230,000 people, and is a world leader with a strong track record in developing new therapies to combat devastating disease.

The annual Australian businesses expenditure on R&D (BERD) declined by more than $2 billion (12%) per annum between 2014 and 2016 (the latest period for which data is available). It is now at levels not seen since the global financial crisis. AusBiotech’s 2019 research also shows that over the past 12 months there has been a ‘stinging’ drop in the industry’s confidence that the operating environment (economic conditions and public policy) was conducive to growing a biotech business (37% to 14%) and a strong increase in the view that the operating environment was working against the industry (16% to 26%). Parliamentarians (present and future) can take action today by committing to support businesses investing in R&D: the key to boosting BERD.

BERD is critical to health and medical research, and all Australians – from bench, to business, to bedside – will benefit when this declining trajectory is reversed.

Supporting BERD supports the country’s overall GDP. Government needs to increase Australia’s R&D expenditure to three per cent of GDP in the short to medium term – a desirable pursuit which will help to discover new life-enhancing technologies and improve existing ones. We note Labor’s commitment yesterday to “making the R&D tax incentive work” and their target of devoting three per cent of GDP to research. Increasing expenditure in R&D will benefit the full health and medical research pipeline. Australia will be able to facilitate innovative technological developments and capitalise on the benefits the technologies bring if it further enhances the current R&D and business conditions that exist here.

To reverse this trend in declining R&D expenditure, we urge that the R&D Tax Incentive (RDTI) is preserved for the sector. Utilising tax incentives will ensure that Australia realises the social and economic benefits from R&D investment, before a tax incentive can be obtained. The R&D Tax Incentive is the most critical centre-piece programme for raising business investment in R&D and for the translation of Australia’s world-class research into treatments, cures, diagnostics, medical devices and vaccines. The programme has been successful in attracting more long-term investment in R&D, creating highly-skilled jobs, and fostering a strong Australian life sciences clinical trials and R&D sector within a globally competitive space. The structure of the RDTI is a significant and valuable economic activator.

Committing to preserving the R&D Tax Incentive for the sector would enable government to make an immediate contribution to creating high-value jobs, attracting clinical research, growing the economy, and improving health outcomes for Australians. Beyond the economic benefit to Australia, the life science industry’s R&D is developing life enhancing and saving interventions around the world, allowing Australia to continue to thrive as a home for some of the world’s most talented scientists and medical researchers, and improve its position as a centre for high-quality medical R&D.

The intellectual property (IP) developed during R&D and underpinning the value of cutting-edge technologies is globally portable. The proposed Australian Innovation and Manufacturing (AIM) incentive has been developed as a complementary tax incentive policy to support and retain home-grown IP locally, and to support manufacturing and innovation. It encourages the research activities funded by Australia to stay in Australia long term, instead of going offshore. Australian-based companies can choose from multiple countries all operating with no or low tax jurisdictions. To remain globally competitive, Australia needs to adopt a comparable solution. The AIM incentive is amongst one of a few policies that would create favourable economic conditions to help address this need.[/vc_column_text][vc_separator][vc_column_text]

This pre-election statement was issued by MTAA, AusBiotech, Medicines Australia, ARCS Australia, Research Australia, BioMelbourne Network, and Biomedical Research Victoria.

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Into the Home Stretch!!

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[vc_row][vc_column][vc_column_text]There were 3 polls out this week; Newspoll, Ipsos and Essential. While all 3 polls had the ALP narrowly in front on a two-party preferred basis, they also had both major parties on a primary vote below where either would want to be, making it difficult to claim they were on track for victory.

It just reinforces the fact that minor party preferences in key states, led by Queensland, will be crucial to who ultimately wins the 76 seats required to form Government.

Both the ALP and LNP are sitting on a primary vote of below 40%, meaning, on average across the nation, 25% of the electorate will be voting for minor parties in the House of Representatives.

In some seats in Queensland that number will be even higher, at 30% plus of the vote given the influence of One Nation, Palmer’s United Australia Party and Katter’s Australia Party.

While the polls are always interesting to watch, the betting markets also provide an alternative perspective on how the major parties are tracking.

Here is a take across 3 betting markets:[/vc_column_text][vc_single_image image=”3141″ img_size=”full” add_caption=”yes”][/vc_column][/vc_row][vc_row][vc_column][vc_column_text]Across these 3 markets, Labor has an average of 76% chance of being elected. There is one punter out there that is so sure of a Labor victory that they have bet $1 million for Bill Shorten to win, which if correct, could see that punter win an estimated $1.23 million.

Just like polling, betting markets are an interesting indicator, but they are not 100% accurate.

Are betting markets a superior predictor to electoral polling? I will leave that for the academics to argue.

There are some interesting takeaways that have been published in recent days though.

Across the 3 betting markets, Labor is at odds of $1.10 or less to win in 59 seats compared to the LNP with 34 seats.

Of the remaining electorates, Labor is favourite in 23. If the betting markets are right, that means Labor is on track to win 82 seats, 6 more than the majority of 76 needed to form Government.

This would also represent a net pick up of 10 seats for the ALP. While 82 seats would definitely be a comfortable majority to govern with, it would be by no means a landslide victory.

Let’s look at some of the odds in some key seats under threat from independents.

Tony Abbott’s seat of Warringah, both Abbott and Zali Steggall are at $1.88 each.

The seat of Wentworth, the Liberals’ Dave Sharma is favourite at $1.25 versus sitting member Kerryn Phelps at $3.55.

In the seat of Farrer, held by former health minister, Sussan Ley, Kevin Mack the independent challenger is marginally in front at $1.80 versus $1.85 for Ley.

Cowper sees former MP and independent Rob Oakshott at $1.55 versus $2.20 for the Nationals’ candidate.

Indi being vacated by Cath McGowan, has the Coalition on track to regain the seat at odds of $1.40 versus $2.70 for the independent McGowan is supporting.[/vc_column_text][vc_zigzag][/vc_column][/vc_row][vc_row][vc_column width=”1/4″][vc_single_image image=”1915″ img_size=”full”][/vc_column][vc_column width=”3/4″][vc_column_text]

ABOUT THE AUTHOR

Jody Fassina is the Managing Director of Insight Strategy and has served as a strategic adviser to MedTech and pharmaceutical stakeholders.[/vc_column_text][/vc_column][/vc_row]

HOW WILL THE SENATE LOOK AFTER THE 2019 ELECTION?

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[vc_row][vc_column][vc_column_text]At the 2016 double dissolution election, a lower threshold for election of individual senators led to an influx of minor parties and crossbench candidates entering the 45th Parliament. This led to the election of a record number of crossbenchers.

This year’s half-Senate election will likely lead to a rebalancing back towards the major parties as many of the crossbench senators who just achieved the required number of votes in 2016 (due to the nature of a double dissolution election) are up for re-election this year.

Approximately three-quarters of the crossbench (including the Greens) will face re-election at this year’s election.

With Greens members making up six of the twelve crossbench senators facing re-election, it remains to be seen what this election will mean for their power in the Senate.

Other key senators facing re-election include:

  • Senator Derryn Hinch (Derryn Hinch Justice Party)
  • Senator Peter Georgiou (Pauline Hanson’s One Nation)
  • Senator Fraser Anning (Independent)
  • Senator Brian Burston (United Australia Party)
  • Senator Tim Storer (Independent), and
  • Senator Duncan Spender (Liberal Democrats).

HOW DO SENATE ELECTIONS WORK?

The Senate, which was established as a ‘House of Review’, is made up of 12 senators from each state and two senators from each territory. In the states, senators are elected for a six-year term with half of the senators facing re-election at each standard election. The two senators representing each of the territories face re-election at every standard election.

As a result, at a half-Senate election, six Senate seats in each state and the two Senate seats in each territory will be contested.

For a Senate candidate to be elected at the 2019 Federal Election, they will have to achieve approximately one-seventh of the total number of votes for that state. This is known as a quota.

The 2016 double dissolution election differed from this standard process due to all senators facing election. This election will reset the Senate electoral cycle as any senator who is elected at the 2019 election will receive a six-year term, as is normal with a half-Senate election and therefore would not face re-election until the 2025 election, assuming that the next two Parliaments run for full terms.

HOW MANY VOTES TO ELECT A SENATOR

A quota is determined by taking the total number of electors in a state or territory and dividing it by the number of senators that are to be elected, plus one.

The purpose of having an equal number of senators for each state was so that each state had an equal voice.

This has provided for a long-standing point of debate, as it is perceived to gives voters in the smaller states a more powerful vote than those in the larger states.

For example, at the last half-Senate election which occurred in 2013, the number of votes required to elect a Tasmanian senator was approximately 48,000 while the number of votes required to elect a NSW senator was approximately 625,000.

THE SENATE BALLOT PAPER AND THE ALLOCATION OF PREFERENCES

For Senate elections, voters receive a ballot paper on which they can either vote above the line by party only, or vote below the line by individual candidate.

When voting above the line, parties decide the order in which their candidates are allocated the votes. Once the first candidate on their ticket has achieved a single quota, the excess vote is then transferred to the next candidate on the party ticket.

Senators who do not receive a full quota are sequentially eliminated starting with the candidate with the least votes.

Where a candidate is eliminated, their votes are transferred to other candidates based on the individual voter’s preferences.

This means that senators that do not achieve a quota in their own right may still be elected if there is a sufficient preference flow towards them from other candidates.[/vc_column_text][vc_zigzag][vc_column_text]

These insightS were provided by the team at Nexus Public Affairs.

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MedTech to Assist in Aboriginal Medical Services

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[vc_row][vc_column][vc_column_text]The funding will be delivered via the Government’s Indigenous Australians’ Health Programme and will contribute to new systems to provide better patient care.

The Indigenous Australian’s Health Programme is a signature initiative of the Australian Government and aims to provide Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander people with access to effective high quality, comprehensive, culturally appropriate, primary health care services in urban, regional, rural and remote locations across Australia.

Including through Aboriginal Community Controlled Health Services, wherever possible and appropriate, as well as services across the entire health system that deliver comprehensive, culturally appropriate primary health care.

The Minister for Indigenous Health, the Hon Ken Wyatt MP said the Federal Government is committed to working with Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander people and communities to develop practical, evidence-based policy and deliver programs that will make a real difference to the lives of First Australians.[/vc_column_text][/vc_column][/vc_row]

Victorian Governments New Flagship Hospital Built

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[vc_row][vc_column][vc_column_text]The state-of-the-art hospital will offer local women and their families world-class maternity and pediatric services. It will also contain the regions first neonatal intensive care unit to care for the most critically ill babies.

The hospital will hold:

  • 20 maternity delivery rooms
  • 237 beds
  • 39 special care nursery cots
  • four theatres and additional clinics
  • 150 extra full-time nurses and midwives

Victorian Minister for Health Jenny Mikakos stated, “more families in Melbourne’s west will be able to access the best pediatric and maternity services close to home thanks to the Joan Kirner Women’s and Children’s Hospital.”

Joan Kirner was premier from 1990 – 94 and the state’s first and only female elected to the top job. Kirner was inducted into the Victorian Honour Roll of Women at the time of her death in 2001.[/vc_column_text][/vc_column][/vc_row]

Labor Pledges More Metastatic Diagnosis Funding for Australian Hospitals

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[vc_row][vc_column][vc_column_text]Metastatic cancer marks the diagnosis stage at which the disease has spreads beyond a primary tumor site to other parts of the body, such as breast cancer that has spread to the bones, liver or lungs. This stage of the diseases is considered to be incurable.

Stakeholders will work with cancer groups and patients to develop the new metastatic cancer nurse program, building on the success of existing cancer nurse programs – but expanding support beyond particular tumour streams.

Hospitals located in regional areas will be of particular focus for the program in an attempt to bridge the gap between major cities and rural communities for cancer care and outcomes.

The funding will be derived from Labor’s 2.3bilion Medicare Cancer Plan that includes cheaper scans, cheaper specialist consultations, cheaper medicines – and better support for people with metastatic cancer. The Medicare Cancer Plan will cover an additional 2,000 appointments a day – three million specialist consultations with no out-of-pocket costs.[/vc_column_text][/vc_column][/vc_row]

Madam Secretary – Glenys Beauchamp Australia’s Secretary of Health

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[vc_row][vc_column][vc_column_text]Appointed by Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull, Glenys Beauchamp took the position following the resignation of former Health Department chief Martin Bowles. The Secretary of Health is one of the most important appointments in the public service, playing an integral part of leading and shaping Australia’s health and aged care systems, and sporting outcomes. The Department’s size and scope is significant – with more than 5000 employees the policies it implements reach every Australian from birth to death.

Beauchamp has listed the most pressing issue facing her department as equity within the system, echoing the findings of a 2017 Commonwealth report that compared the performance of health systems in 11 OECD countries. The report found that Australia scored well in four of the five categories measured and was ranked second overall. However, our health system fell to seventh place when assessed against the measurement of equity. With poor performance becoming evident when looking at the health gap, for example, between Indigenous and non-Indigenous Australians, its clear that the lens needs to shift to understand how we can better provide for marginalised communities.

Beauchamp has also taken to keeping the Department apolitical stating: “I take seriously my responsibilities and the obligation of the department to ensure we do not support or participate in any political commentary.”  After a letter was sent to Labor’s Shadow Minister for Health, the Hon Catherine King MP, explaining that the Department does not cost Opposition policies. This was in response to Minister for Health Greg Hunt releasing Department of Health data arguing Labor’s $2.3 billion boost to cancer treatment, over four years, would cost taxpayers $6.8 billion.

In the 2018 Department of Health’s Annual Report Glenys Beauchamp listed the strategic priorities as:

  1. Improving health and ageing outcomes and reduced inequality; and
  2. Maintaining Australia’s high-quality health and aged care system.

 The key tactical aspects of these priorities included the following:

  • an integrated approach that balances prevention, primary, secondary and tertiary care
  • promoting greater engagement of individuals in their health and healthcare
  • enabling access for people with cultural and diverse backgrounds including Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander peoples, people in rural and remote areas and people experiencing socio-economic disadvantage
  • partnering and collaborating with others to deliver health and aged care programs
  • better, more cost-effective care through research, innovation and technology
  • regulation that protects the health and safety of the community, while minimising unnecessary compliance burdens

Away from the domestic agenda and looking to the role Australia plays at the international level, in 2017 Beauchamp chaired the sixty-eighth session of the WHO Regional Committee for the Western Pacific, where she was quoted stating the biggest issues facing our region:

  • measles and Rubella elimination that currently average, around 60,000 people infected with measles every year and several thousand babies are born with congenital rubella syndrome in the Western Pacific Region;
  • harmful impact of food marketing with wider availability of cheaper foods high in salt, free sugars and fats is driving the increasing prevalence of overweight and obesity. Exposure to aggressive marketing of these foods contributes to the problem;
  • regional Action Plan that aims to assist in practical approaches to improving health literacy, and supporting better informed health decisions;
  • sexually transmitted diseases HIV, Hepatitis B, and Syphilis that can be effectively prevented by simple interventions that can be delivered with antenatal, delivery and postnatal care – such as antenatal screening, treatment of infected mothers and prophylaxis of exposed infants.

The next few years will be vital if the Department of Health is able to achieve its objective of ensuring Australia sustains its position in world-leading health and wellbeing standards.

Fortunately, Beauchamp has brought a wealth of experience to the role. Prior to being appointed Secretary for Health, Beauchamp served as Secretary for Department of Industry, Innovation and Science (2013 – 2017) and Secretary of the Department of Regional Australia, Local Government, Arts and Sport (2010-2013). She has served as Deputy Secretary in the Department of the Prime Minister and Cabinet (2009-2010) and the Department of Families, Housing, Community Services and Indigenous Affairs (2002-2009).

Beauchamp also holds a degree in economics from the Australian National University and an MBA from the University of Canberra. In 2010, Beauchamp received the Public Service Medal (PSM) for her work in coordinating the Australian Government’s support during the 2009 Victorian bushfires.

It follows that in the context of an ageing population, the dramatic rise in dementia patients and the current diabetes crises – more and more pressure will be placed on the health system. Following the May 18 Elections, it will be interesting to see whether a returned Coalition Government or an incoming Labor Government will seek to shuffle the Department Secretaries deck, and who will be tasked to take on the challenge of the Health Department.[/vc_column_text][/vc_column][/vc_row]

A Look At The Australian Greens’ Election Platform

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[vc_row][vc_column][vc_column_text]The balance of power in the Senate is likely to remain with the Centre Alliance and others, such as Derryn Hinch and Tim Storer, however, the Greens have a narrow chance of picking up a few more seats and may be crucial to the passage of key health changes through the Senate.

Their big spending health plan, which promises to ‘ensure we have a genuinely universal public health system’ will lift Commonwealth funding for hospitals from 45 to 50 per cent and matches the ALP’s $2.3 billion cancer commitment.

They have also pledged to centralise all health funding under a single agency, with $970 million to be spent over four years in order to stop cost shifting between state and federal governments.

The proposed independent Preventive Health Commission will focus on obesity and alcohol-related harm and there is also a proposal for additional funding from Medicare for team based healthcare for people with chronic diseases.

Private Healthcare Australia have been critical of the Greens policy to abolish the private health insurance rebate, which would likely see significant numbers of people drop their private cover, with CEO Rachel David saying that “No serious health policy-maker would contemplate the Greens proposal to abolish the PHI rebate as even as vague option for the future of Australia’s health system”.

However, it wasn’t all criticism, with Leanne Wells, CEO of the Consumer Health Forum, saying that “Most health analysts would agree that many of the reforms suggested by the Greens would produce better outcomes for those Australians most likely to suffer ill-health.”[/vc_column_text][/vc_column][/vc_row]

The Disappearing Candidates

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[vc_row][vc_column][vc_column_text]One Nation, Liberal and Labor have all lost endorsed candidates for both inappropriate behaviour and unacceptable social media posts.

Led by One Nation’s Steve Dickson with video emerging of him engaging in both crude behaviour and commentary at a Washington strip club, it was even too much for One Nation leader Pauline Hanson.  It’s a bit hard to campaign on a platform of family values while cavorting with strippers and your wife is back home.

The Liberal Party to date have lost 3 candidates for unacceptable comments in regard to muslims and homophobic comments.  Labor lost a Senate candidate in the NT for spreading Jewish one world conspiracy theories and their candidate in the seat of Melbourne resigned due to totally inappropriate social media postings, joking about rape.

All in all, it just ads to the general cynicism and distrust the public have both in regard to politics generally and major parties in particular as they are seen as the political establishment and ultimately the custodians of the political system.

It is no wonder then, that an increasing number of people vote for fringe and minor parties in protest at these types of antics.

Health Debate

On Thursday, Health Minister Greg Hunt went head to head with Shadow Minister Catherine King at the National Press Club in the traditional health debate.

In a lively debate both the Minister and Shadow Minister forcefully prosecuted their respective party’s health policies.

Catherine King was keen to highlight Labor’s cancer care policy, pensioner dental plan and the restoration of Commonwealth funding to state public hospitals.

Greg Hunt announced that a re-elected Morrison Government would allow older patients to have GP consultations by phone, email or text in an expansion of the Government’s telehealth trials.

He also highlighted that the Government has listed every recommended medication on the PBS and that this was only due to the strong economic stewardship of the Government.

Catherine King was keen to remind those present and hence the Australian community that it was Labor that created Medicare and the PBS.

Minor Parties and the Election

The preferences of minor parties will be key to deciding the outcome in a number of key seats, particularly in Queensland where the Government hold 8 seats on a margin of 4% or less.

Bearing in mind that Labor need to win a net 5 seats to win Government, a good result in Queensland alone could propel Bill Shorten into the lodge.

That being said, the preferences of One Nation, Palmer United and Katter’s Australian Party will be crucial in a number of these seats.

With the preference deal between the LNP and Clive Palmer, the Government will be hoping to save some key marginal seats.

In the key Queensland seat of Herbert, based on Townsville held by Labor with a margin of 37 votes, a recent poll found that a combined 40% of the electorate would vote for minor parties.

This puts into stark reality, the importance minor party preferences will play on May 18.[/vc_column_text][vc_zigzag][vc_row_inner][vc_column_inner width=”1/4″][vc_single_image image=”1915″ img_size=”full”][/vc_column_inner][vc_column_inner width=”3/4″][vc_column_text]

ABOUT THE AUTHOR

Jody Fassina is the Managing Director of Insight Strategy and has served as a strategic adviser to MedTech and pharmaceutical stakeholders.[/vc_column_text][/vc_column_inner][/vc_row_inner][/vc_column][/vc_row]