Category: Election Watch

[vc_row][vc_column][vc_column_text]The number of seats in play may make it challenging for either party to claim victory on Saturday night. The YouGov/Galaxy poll released on Friday showed Labor slightly in front with a 51 to 49 result against the Coalition, but of interest to last minute voters is the fact that the Coalition has increased its primary vote in this poll by 2 percentage points, leading Labor 39 to 37.

While a result may not be certain on Saturday night, we have compiled a list of critical seats to keep an eye on, wherever you’re watching the outcome.

WE’RE WATCHING… THE ODDS

The final poll of the campaign, from YouGov Galaxy, has kept the margin relatively close, positioning Labor with a lead of 51-49.[/vc_column_text][vc_single_image image=”3178″ img_size=”full” title=”SPORTSBET”][vc_single_image image=”3179″ img_size=”full” title=”TAB”][vc_column_text]TAB has recorded a number of large bets for Labor in the last day, seeing it firm to $1.18 and although TAB is seeing money come in for the Coalition, it has pushed the Coalition out to $5.50.  Around the country, TAB has betting markets in a range of marginal seats, some of which are changing rapidly.  Over the last few days, these have seen the Coalition firm in a number of seats, while a few unexpected seats are now falling to Labor in terms of the money flow.

WE’RE WATCHING…THE SEATS THAT WILL LIKELY DECIDE THE GOVERNMENT

We have prepared a bit of a form guide for you on a State by State basis as a guide of what seats to watch on election night.

We have identified two seats in each State or Territory that we will be watching to get a quick snapshot of how the election has gone for the major parties.

While either party could form government without winning the listed seats, the party winning the majority of the seats which are listed below is likely to form Government.

Australian Capital Territory

With all seats predicted to be held on notionally large Labor margins, there is a general consensus that there are no seats in play in the ACT, with Canberra, Fenner and the new seat of Bean all expected to go to Labor on election night.

New South Wales

As the most populated State, New South Wales has a number of seats which are in play for both major parties on election night.

Reid (LP – 4.7%, sitting member has retired)

Labor has spent considerable time in the inner western Sydney seat of Reid. Labor may feel they have the upper hand, with their candidate campaigning hard for more than a year. If Labor can claim victory in Reid, it could signal a strong showing for Labor throughout NSW.

Lindsay (ALP – 1.1%, sitting member has retired)

If the Liberal Party hopes to form government, the former bellwether seat of Lindsay will be a necessary gain. Encouraging for the Liberal Party, a recent opinion poll has them holding a predicted 52% – 48% lead in Lindsay. A tight contest will surely be on the cards in the western Sydney seat.

Northern Territory

With the two NT seats being held by Labor, a win for the Coalition in either of these seats would be a key gain for them.

It is worth noting that as Solomon and Lingiari have less voters than standard-sized electorates, the margins can be misleading, as only approximately 3,500 people’s votes would need to be change in either seat for the seats to change hands. This, coupled with a general discontent with the NT Labor Territory Government, has resulted in both seats being considered as ‘in play’.

Queensland

Queensland has been considered one of the key battlegrounds in this election. Both major parties have visited the ‘Sunshine State’ on a number of occasions with the goal of winning a number of in-play seats.

Flynn (LNP – 1%, Mr Ken O’Dowd MP)

Labor will be looking to claim victory in the regional Queensland seat of Flynn, as a win in Flynn would indicate Labor is likely to pick up a number of seats in Queensland. With the seat’s location between Bundaberg and Rockhampton, Adani has been an issue in this tightly held LNP seat.

Herbert (ALP – 0.02%, Ms Cathy O’Toole MP)

The Coalition has Herbert in its sights, with the seat held on the smallest margin in the country. A seat that will likely be influenced by the conservative minor party vote, the Coalition will be hoping that its deal with the United Australia Party will deliver them a win in Herbert.

South Australia

As a small state by population, South Australia does not have many seats which are considered to be in play. However, both parties will likely have the following seats in their sights in their quest to form a majority government.

Boothby (LP – 2.7%, Ms Nicole Flint MP)

Early in the campaign, Labor identified the southern suburbs seat of Boothby as its most likely gain in South Australia. If Labor can claim victory in this traditionally Coalition held seat, it will be an important gain in the quest to form government.

Mayo (CA – 2.9%, Ms Rebekha Sharkie MP)

A former Liberal stronghold, Mayo is currently held by the Centre Alliance. With a strong victory at the ‘Super Saturday’ by-election, the Centre Alliance firmed their hold on the seat. If the Liberal Party can reclaim Mayo, it will be a big win in their fight to retain government.

Tasmania

As the smallest state by population, seats in Tasmania often change hands against the nationwide trend. Currently the Coalition does not hold any of the lower house seats in Tasmania.

If Labor is to form government, they will need to retain all their Tasmanian seats. If the Coalition manages to win any of the Tasmanian seats, this will add to their chances of retaining government at a nationwide level.

Victoria

Victoria is considered one of the other key battleground states this election, with Labor hoping to replicate the results of the state election in November 2018, which saw a large swing from the Coalition to Labor.  Significant gains in this state will likely see a majority Labor government.

La Trobe (LP – 3.2%, Mr Jason Wood MP)

La Trobe is a seat that has only ever been held by Labor when it forms government. Labor will be hoping its strong performance at the 2018 Victorian election will translate to La Trobe, where there were significant swings towards the Labor Party.

Corangamite (LP – 0.03%, the Hon Sarah Henderson MP)

Currently held by the Liberals, Corangamite is now notionally considered Labor due to the recent electoral redistribution. The Liberal Party has spent significant time in the ultra-marginal electorate, which it will need to hold if it is to retain government.

Western Australia

With a number of seats arguably in play this election, Western Australia has received quite a bit of attention from the major parties. Labor will be aiming to unseat two current Cabinet Ministers who currently hold marginal seats in WA.

Hasluck (LP – 2.1%, the Hon Ken Wyatt AM, MP)

Located in the north of Perth, Hasluck is held by the current Minister for Indigenous Health and Minister for Senior Australians and Aged Care. Labor has identified Hasluck as winnable, and would be keen to win the seat to support its chances of forming a majority government.

Cowan (ALP – 0.7%, Dr Anne Aly MP)

Held on a small margin, Cowan looks to be the Liberal Party’s most likely gain in WA. Held by the Liberal Party for nearly a decade prior to the 2016 election, a redistribution narrowly gave the seat to the Labor Party. This seat could go either way come election night.

Other Seats to Watch on Election Night

Cowper – Mr Rob Oakeshott is aiming to return to Parliament as an independent with the sitting Nationals member, and former minister Hon Luke Hartsukyer, retiring at this election.

Wentworth – Elected only seven months ago, independent member Dr Kerryn Phelps AM, MP will be contesting the seat once again. It is unclear whether the momentum that brought her in the first time will be replicated on election day, having regard to the Liberal candidate, Dave Sharma, campaigning hard since the by-election.

Warringah – Former prime minister, the Hon Tony Abbott MP, is in the fight of his political life as he tries to retain the seat that he has held for 25 years against former Olympic skier and barrister, Ms Zali Steggall OAM.

Dobell – The Coalition will be trying to win this seat back off Labor, with rumours circulating that this contest will be tighter than expected.

Farrer – With the Coalition suffering poor results at the NSW state election in rural seats, the Hon Susan Ley MP’s traditionally safe seat is at risk to an independent candidate, Mr Kevin Mack.

Dickson – Held by the Minister for Home Affairs, Labor will be looking to unseat the Hon Peter Dutton MP, who has been in Parliament since 2001.

Flinders – A three-way contest between Minister for Health, the Hon Greg Hunt MP, Labor and Independent candidate, Ms Julia Banks MP, will see the minister facing a challenge to his position through preference deals in the seat.

Higgins – The seat of retiring member, the Hon Kelly O’Dwyer MP, this will be a contest between the Liberal Party and the Greens, with Labor preferences likely to play a key role.

Indi – With independent member, Ms Cathy McGowan AO, MP retiring, the Coalition will be hoping to regain this traditional Liberal seat, and with the Liberals and Nationals contesting the seat, preference flows should help the Coalition over the line.

Lyons – Despite being disendorsed, Ms Jessica Whelan has continued to campaign strongly and with a Nationals candidate running, conservative voters in Lyons may still have a voice in Parliament.

Sturt – The seat of the retiring Minister for Defence, the Hon Christopher Pyne MP, the seat could come into play depending on how strong the typical ‘retirement swing’ is against the Liberal Party.[/vc_column_text][vc_zigzag][vc_column_text]

These Insights have been provided by the team at Nexus Public Affairs.

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[vc_row][vc_column][vc_column_text]Voters ultimately make the decision as to who they preference, but many often follow the how-to-vote cards handed out by parties on election day.

As it stands, the Coalition has made a potentially valuable deal with Mr Clive Palmer’s United Australia Party. Mr Palmer will preference the Coalition second across all 151 lower-house seats and in return the Coalition will preference the United Australia party either second or third in the Senate.

The ALP criticised this move, with Senator Anthony Chisholm, who was accused of seeking a deal with Mr Palmer, commenting that Mr Palmer is ‘chaotic and dishonest’ and that ‘at no stage did I negotiate or offer Mr Palmer anything in regard to preferences. I was not authorised to offer anything, and I didn’t’.

Amongst other news concerning her party this election, Senator Pauline Hanson announced that One Nation would be giving preferential treatment to some Liberal candidates and all Nationals MPs.

Despite the controversy that surrounded Senator Fraser Anning and the subsequent resolution by the Morrison Government that One Nation would be preferenced last across the country, the Liberal National Party in Queensland will direct preferences to One Nation ahead of Labor and the Greens in some seats.

In a statement to the media, Deputy Prime Minister and Leader of the Nationals, the Hon Michael McCormack MP, said that the deal made sense, saying ‘the fact is Pauline Hanson acknowledges that our policies are more closely aligned with the interests and wants of her voters than the Greens or Labor’.

In response, the Prime Minister, the Hon Scott Morrison MP, distanced the Liberals from the Nationals, stating, ‘we’re two separate parties … The One Nation Party have made their decision, the Nationals have made their decision. So that’s a matter for the National Party’.[/vc_column_text][vc_zigzag][/vc_column][/vc_row][vc_row][vc_column][vc_column_text]

THESE INSIGHTs WERE PROVIDED BY THE TEAM AT NEXUS PUBLIC AFFAIRS.

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[vc_row][vc_column][vc_column_text]There were 3 polls out this week; Newspoll, Ipsos and Essential. While all 3 polls had the ALP narrowly in front on a two-party preferred basis, they also had both major parties on a primary vote below where either would want to be, making it difficult to claim they were on track for victory.

It just reinforces the fact that minor party preferences in key states, led by Queensland, will be crucial to who ultimately wins the 76 seats required to form Government.

Both the ALP and LNP are sitting on a primary vote of below 40%, meaning, on average across the nation, 25% of the electorate will be voting for minor parties in the House of Representatives.

In some seats in Queensland that number will be even higher, at 30% plus of the vote given the influence of One Nation, Palmer’s United Australia Party and Katter’s Australia Party.

While the polls are always interesting to watch, the betting markets also provide an alternative perspective on how the major parties are tracking.

Here is a take across 3 betting markets:[/vc_column_text][vc_single_image image=”3141″ img_size=”full” add_caption=”yes”][/vc_column][/vc_row][vc_row][vc_column][vc_column_text]Across these 3 markets, Labor has an average of 76% chance of being elected. There is one punter out there that is so sure of a Labor victory that they have bet $1 million for Bill Shorten to win, which if correct, could see that punter win an estimated $1.23 million.

Just like polling, betting markets are an interesting indicator, but they are not 100% accurate.

Are betting markets a superior predictor to electoral polling? I will leave that for the academics to argue.

There are some interesting takeaways that have been published in recent days though.

Across the 3 betting markets, Labor is at odds of $1.10 or less to win in 59 seats compared to the LNP with 34 seats.

Of the remaining electorates, Labor is favourite in 23. If the betting markets are right, that means Labor is on track to win 82 seats, 6 more than the majority of 76 needed to form Government.

This would also represent a net pick up of 10 seats for the ALP. While 82 seats would definitely be a comfortable majority to govern with, it would be by no means a landslide victory.

Let’s look at some of the odds in some key seats under threat from independents.

Tony Abbott’s seat of Warringah, both Abbott and Zali Steggall are at $1.88 each.

The seat of Wentworth, the Liberals’ Dave Sharma is favourite at $1.25 versus sitting member Kerryn Phelps at $3.55.

In the seat of Farrer, held by former health minister, Sussan Ley, Kevin Mack the independent challenger is marginally in front at $1.80 versus $1.85 for Ley.

Cowper sees former MP and independent Rob Oakshott at $1.55 versus $2.20 for the Nationals’ candidate.

Indi being vacated by Cath McGowan, has the Coalition on track to regain the seat at odds of $1.40 versus $2.70 for the independent McGowan is supporting.[/vc_column_text][vc_zigzag][/vc_column][/vc_row][vc_row][vc_column width=”1/4″][vc_single_image image=”1915″ img_size=”full”][/vc_column][vc_column width=”3/4″][vc_column_text]

ABOUT THE AUTHOR

Jody Fassina is the Managing Director of Insight Strategy and has served as a strategic adviser to MedTech and pharmaceutical stakeholders.[/vc_column_text][/vc_column][/vc_row]

[vc_row][vc_column][vc_column_text]At the 2016 double dissolution election, a lower threshold for election of individual senators led to an influx of minor parties and crossbench candidates entering the 45^th Parliament. This led to the election of a record number of crossbenchers.

This year’s half-Senate election will likely lead to a rebalancing back towards the major parties as many of the crossbench senators who just achieved the required number of votes in 2016 (due to the nature of a double dissolution election) are up for re-election this year.

Approximately three-quarters of the crossbench (including the Greens) will face re-election at this year’s election.

With Greens members making up six of the twelve crossbench senators facing re-election, it remains to be seen what this election will mean for their power in the Senate.

Other key senators facing re-election include:

• Senator Derryn Hinch (Derryn Hinch Justice Party)
• Senator Peter Georgiou (Pauline Hanson’s One Nation)
• Senator Fraser Anning (Independent)
• Senator Brian Burston (United Australia Party)
• Senator Tim Storer (Independent), and
• Senator Duncan Spender (Liberal Democrats).

HOW DO SENATE ELECTIONS WORK?

The Senate, which was established as a ‘House of Review’, is made up of 12 senators from each state and two senators from each territory. In the states, senators are elected for a six-year term with half of the senators facing re-election at each standard election. The two senators representing each of the territories face re-election at every standard election.

As a result, at a half-Senate election, six Senate seats in each state and the two Senate seats in each territory will be contested.

For a Senate candidate to be elected at the 2019 Federal Election, they will have to achieve approximately one-seventh of the total number of votes for that state. This is known as a quota.

The 2016 double dissolution election differed from this standard process due to all senators facing election. This election will reset the Senate electoral cycle as any senator who is elected at the 2019 election will receive a six-year term, as is normal with a half-Senate election and therefore would not face re-election until the 2025 election, assuming that the next two Parliaments run for full terms.

HOW MANY VOTES TO ELECT A SENATOR

A quota is determined by taking the total number of electors in a state or territory and dividing it by the number of senators that are to be elected, plus one.

The purpose of having an equal number of senators for each state was so that each state had an equal voice.

This has provided for a long-standing point of debate, as it is perceived to gives voters in the smaller states a more powerful vote than those in the larger states.

For example, at the last half-Senate election which occurred in 2013, the number of votes required to elect a Tasmanian senator was approximately 48,000 while the number of votes required to elect a NSW senator was approximately 625,000.

THE SENATE BALLOT PAPER AND THE ALLOCATION OF PREFERENCES

For Senate elections, voters receive a ballot paper on which they can either vote above the line by party only, or vote below the line by individual candidate.

When voting above the line, parties decide the order in which their candidates are allocated the votes. Once the first candidate on their ticket has achieved a single quota, the excess vote is then transferred to the next candidate on the party ticket.

Senators who do not receive a full quota are sequentially eliminated starting with the candidate with the least votes.

Where a candidate is eliminated, their votes are transferred to other candidates based on the individual voter’s preferences.

This means that senators that do not achieve a quota in their own right may still be elected if there is a sufficient preference flow towards them from other candidates.[/vc_column_text][vc_zigzag][vc_column_text]

These insightS were provided by the team at Nexus Public Affairs.

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[vc_row][vc_column][vc_column_text]The balance of power in the Senate is likely to remain with the Centre Alliance and others, such as Derryn Hinch and Tim Storer, however, the Greens have a narrow chance of picking up a few more seats and may be crucial to the passage of key health changes through the Senate.

Their big spending health plan, which promises to ‘ensure we have a genuinely universal public health system’ will lift Commonwealth funding for hospitals from 45 to 50 per cent and matches the ALP’s $2.3 billion cancer commitment.

They have also pledged to centralise all health funding under a single agency, with $970 million to be spent over four years in order to stop cost shifting between state and federal governments.

The proposed independent Preventive Health Commission will focus on obesity and alcohol-related harm and there is also a proposal for additional funding from Medicare for team based healthcare for people with chronic diseases.

Private Healthcare Australia have been critical of the Greens policy to abolish the private health insurance rebate, which would likely see significant numbers of people drop their private cover, with CEO Rachel David saying that “No serious health policy-maker would contemplate the Greens proposal to abolish the PHI rebate as even as vague option for the future of Australia’s health system”.

However, it wasn’t all criticism, with Leanne Wells, CEO of the Consumer Health Forum, saying that “Most health analysts would agree that many of the reforms suggested by the Greens would produce better outcomes for those Australians most likely to suffer ill-health.”[/vc_column_text][/vc_column][/vc_row]

[vc_row][vc_column][vc_column_text]One Nation, Liberal and Labor have all lost endorsed candidates for both inappropriate behaviour and unacceptable social media posts.

Led by One Nation’s Steve Dickson with video emerging of him engaging in both crude behaviour and commentary at a Washington strip club, it was even too much for One Nation leader Pauline Hanson.  It’s a bit hard to campaign on a platform of family values while cavorting with strippers and your wife is back home.

The Liberal Party to date have lost 3 candidates for unacceptable comments in regard to muslims and homophobic comments.  Labor lost a Senate candidate in the NT for spreading Jewish one world conspiracy theories and their candidate in the seat of Melbourne resigned due to totally inappropriate social media postings, joking about rape.

All in all, it just ads to the general cynicism and distrust the public have both in regard to politics generally and major parties in particular as they are seen as the political establishment and ultimately the custodians of the political system.

It is no wonder then, that an increasing number of people vote for fringe and minor parties in protest at these types of antics.

Health Debate

On Thursday, Health Minister Greg Hunt went head to head with Shadow Minister Catherine King at the National Press Club in the traditional health debate.

In a lively debate both the Minister and Shadow Minister forcefully prosecuted their respective party’s health policies.

Catherine King was keen to highlight Labor’s cancer care policy, pensioner dental plan and the restoration of Commonwealth funding to state public hospitals.

Greg Hunt announced that a re-elected Morrison Government would allow older patients to have GP consultations by phone, email or text in an expansion of the Government’s telehealth trials.

He also highlighted that the Government has listed every recommended medication on the PBS and that this was only due to the strong economic stewardship of the Government.

Catherine King was keen to remind those present and hence the Australian community that it was Labor that created Medicare and the PBS.

Minor Parties and the Election

The preferences of minor parties will be key to deciding the outcome in a number of key seats, particularly in Queensland where the Government hold 8 seats on a margin of 4% or less.

Bearing in mind that Labor need to win a net 5 seats to win Government, a good result in Queensland alone could propel Bill Shorten into the lodge.

That being said, the preferences of One Nation, Palmer United and Katter’s Australian Party will be crucial in a number of these seats.

With the preference deal between the LNP and Clive Palmer, the Government will be hoping to save some key marginal seats.

In the key Queensland seat of Herbert, based on Townsville held by Labor with a margin of 37 votes, a recent poll found that a combined 40% of the electorate would vote for minor parties.

This puts into stark reality, the importance minor party preferences will play on May 18.[/vc_column_text][vc_zigzag][vc_row_inner][vc_column_inner width=”1/4″][vc_single_image image=”1915″ img_size=”full”][/vc_column_inner][vc_column_inner width=”3/4″][vc_column_text]

ABOUT THE AUTHOR

Jody Fassina is the Managing Director of Insight Strategy and has served as a strategic adviser to MedTech and pharmaceutical stakeholders.[/vc_column_text][/vc_column_inner][/vc_row_inner][/vc_column][/vc_row]

[vc_row][vc_column][vc_column_text]This week started with the first Newspoll of the campaign showing Labor maintaining its lead 52 to 48 on a two-party preferred basis – Labor’s 53^rd favourable poll in row.

However, in a boost for the Government, polls are now showing them level pegging with the Opposition, with both parties on a primary vote of 39.

This week has seen the campaign played out over both sides’ preferred turf; For the Liberals it’s all about economic management, tax cuts and ‘who do you trust on the economy?’ And for Labor, it’s been health and their follow-up announcements for their Cancer Care Plan that included $200 million for pathology bulk billing and $20 million to allow patients to have access to cancer drugs that are still in clinical trials.

It is fair to say that at the end of week one, the Government has come out on top.  The Prime Minister was on the front foot on his preferred issue of tax cuts and the economy, while Opposition Leader Bill Shorten was under pressure over his ‘no more taxes on superannuation’ gaffe as well as his struggle to explain how much Labor’s climate change policy will cost.

All in all, a good week for the Government. Labor will welcome the Easter weekend and a short reprieve so they can regroup and iron out their messaging.

Labor want to fight this election on health, and not questions about taxation, and in particular their proposed taxation changes.

In other developments, Clive Palmer, who has been blasting our TV screens with ads for the last couple of months at a claimed cost of a $1 million a week, has announced he is running for the Senate.

Palmer has also promised to pay to outstanding worker entitlements from his failed nickel refinery of $7 million, although this has nothing to do with the fact that there is an election happening.

Is Anybody Listening?

While not a great week for Bill Shorten and Labor, they will be thankful it was week one and not the last week of the campaign.

Campaigns are always about issues, policies and personalities but they are also about momentum.

If a campaign is to have bad week, the earlier the better.  Labor will not want a repeat of the week just gone.

As they say, you want to be heading into election day with a wet sail and not a head wind!!  Just ask Michael Daley, former leader of the NSW Labor Party.

From a campaign perspective, other than those that the Prime Minister would refer to as ‘being in the bubble’, the vast bulk of the electorate are probably not even tuned-into the election yet.

In all likelihood, the electorate probably won’t begin to tune-in until after ANZAC Day – week 3 of the campaign.

At that point, the advertising carpet bombing I suspect will begin.

Happy Easter All![/vc_column_text][vc_zigzag][vc_row_inner][vc_column_inner width=”1/4″][vc_single_image image=”1915″ img_size=”full”][/vc_column_inner][vc_column_inner width=”3/4″][vc_column_text]

ABOUT THE AUTHOR

Jody Fassina is the Managing Director of Insight Strategy and has served as a strategic adviser to MedTech and pharmaceutical stakeholders.[/vc_column_text][/vc_column_inner][/vc_row_inner][/vc_column][/vc_row]

[vc_row][vc_column][vc_column_text]The 46^th Parliament will be contested in 151 seats, up from 150 at the last election due to the Australian Electoral Commission adding an extra seat as a result of electoral redistributions in various states and population shifts.

In the Senate, 40 Senators will be facing the polls being 6 from each state and 2 each from the ACT and NT.

The Senate election is a half-Senate election and those Senators that were elected for 3-year terms in 2016 now face the polls again.

With retirements and alike, there will be quite a number of new faces in both the House of Representatives and the Senate.

WHAT TO EXPECT

Unlike the 2016 election, expect this election to be a bare-knuckle brawl between Scott Morrison and Bill Shorten.

Both are experienced politicians and campaigners.  Shorten is battle-hardened after 6 years as Opposition Leader and surviving the Royal Commission into Trade Unions, established by Tony Abbott early in his tenure.

Scott Morrison became the Liberals’ 3^rd Prime Minister in as many years, and inherited a party torn by both ideological differences and personality conflicts – battles he has been fighting from day one.  A lesser leader might have already been destroyed by such challenges.

Morrison also brings his experience as a former NSW Liberal Party director to the fore. He knows how campaigns work and how they are run.

It is fair to say neither leader will leave any stone unturned in their pursuit of The Lodge.

WHERE WILL IT BE WON AND LOST

Queensland is the battleground state, followed by NSW and Victoria.

Of the Government’s 13 most marginal seats, 7 alone are in Queensland held by a margin of 3% or less and 3 are held in NSW on a margin of 1.3% or less.

With Labor needing to win 5 seats to form government, they could do so simply by winning key seats in Queensland, while making no gains in any other state.

For the LNP, they need a swing to them and net gain of 4 seats to retain government.  They cannot afford to lose even one seat.

Some Interesting Seats to Watch

Warringah held by Tony Abbott is under threat from former Olympic skier Zali Steggall.  If Tony Abbott’s primary vote falls below 45% on May 18, he will be in trouble.  In 2016 he polled 51%.

Wentworth is held by Kerryn Phelps.  Malcolm Turnbull’s former seat was lost with a near 20% swing. The Liberals’ Dave Sharma will be fighting hard to reclaim that seat. This will be a fascinating contest. Will Turnbull campaign for Sharma or continue to criticise from the sidelines?

Cowper is an open seat following the retirement of Nationals MP Luke Hartsuyker. What makes this seat interesting is former high-profile and independent MP, Rob Oakeshott, is attempting a political comeback, going head-to-head with the Nationals.[/vc_column_text][vc_zigzag][vc_row_inner][vc_column_inner width=”1/4″][vc_single_image image=”1915″ img_size=”full”][/vc_column_inner][vc_column_inner width=”3/4″][vc_column_text]

ABOUT THE AUTHOR

Jody Fassina is the Managing Director of Insight Strategy and has served as a strategic adviser to MedTech and pharmaceutical stakeholders.[/vc_column_text][/vc_column_inner][/vc_row_inner][/vc_column][/vc_row]