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And the Winner is…

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[vc_row][vc_column][vc_column_text]Will the electorate reward Bill Shorten and his bold social policy program, underwritten by major changes to tax?  Or will the electorate forgive the Liberals and their revolving door leadership, to give Scott Morrison his own mandate to govern.

Make no mistake, this election is close. Where once the Liberals saw themselves as no chance, there is now some hope. For Labor, having previously seen this election as a sure thing, they now have a sense of nervousness.

The first week of the campaign was a shaky one for Labor. After week 2, Labor was able to steady their campaign and, on balance, deliver a solid performance alongside the Liberals.

What has become apparent from the published polls is that neither side has been able to break away from the other.

Labor will take some heart that in every major published poll during the campaign it has shown them consistently, if only narrowly, in front on a two-party preferred basis.  In saying that the polls are not infallible.

The interesting takeout from all the polls, is that neither side has had a primary vote to guarantee victory.

Labor needs a primary vote of 38-39 to be confident of a win, however they haven’t once reached those numbers during the campaign. The Liberals on the other hand need a primary vote of around 43 but have also been able to reach that number. This makes any outcome for this election complicated to predict, with certainty.

Come this evening when the votes will be counted, it will be the battle of the preferences, with key states in Queensland and, followed closely by Victoria, likely to determine who forms government.

Some seats in Queensland are likely to see a combined vote for the minor parties of around 30% or possibly more. The question the everyone will be asking will be, ‘where do those preferences go?’

It’s worth noting that, based on all the published polls, the average combined vote for minor parties across the country is 25% in the House of Representatives, and even higher in the Senate.

This election is unique for some key factors as well.  It will be the first campaign where a third-party (Clive Palmer) will probably have outspent the major parties thanks to an estimated $50 million advertising carpet bombing.

According to the AEC over 4 million (approximately 25% of the total number of register voters on the electoral roll) people have cast their ballots in early pre-poll voting – this is unprecedented.

So, who will be crowned the victor come election day?

If the polls are to be believed, Bill Shorten and Labor would eke out a narrow win, and with 76 seats required for a majority, that narrow win looks to be only 78-80 seats.

For the Scott Morrison and the Coalition, while their path to 76 looks incredibly difficult and on balance a stretch, a hung Parliament followed by a minority Morrison Government supported by crossbench independents, would be their best-case scenario for re-election.

Enjoy your democracy sausage![/vc_column_text][vc_zigzag][vc_row_inner][vc_column_inner width=”1/4″][vc_single_image image=”1915″ img_size=”full”][/vc_column_inner][vc_column_inner width=”3/4″][vc_column_text]

ABOUT THE AUTHOR

Jody Fassina is the Managing Director of Insight Strategy and has served as a strategic adviser to MedTech and pharmaceutical stakeholders.[/vc_column_text][/vc_column_inner][/vc_row_inner][/vc_column][/vc_row]

Logan Hospital to Begin Stage 2 of Redevelopment Plan as Demand Booms

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[vc_row][vc_column][vc_column_text]Stage 2 of the Logan Hospital’s redevelopment plan will build upon the Queensland Government’s previous $281 million commitment of Stage 1 that included 192 extra beds.

Logan Hospital has also received $33.4 million commitment to build an Urgent and Specialist Care Centre at Logan, which will treat people with urgent but not life-threatening illnesses and injuries.

This large amount of investment is in response to the rapidly growing demand for services in the Logan area.

With urgent action required as Queensland Health’s own data showing Logan Hospital was among the worst in the state for waiting times.

Deputy Mayor Trevina Schwarz stated “Logan Hospital is one of the most in-d]emand in Queensland with upwards of 88,000 admissions to the emergency department each year.”[/vc_column_text][/vc_column][/vc_row]

Indigenous People Living With Dementia To Receive Extra Support

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[vc_row][vc_column][vc_column_text]The community project will aim to:

  • Increase community awareness, and drive acceptance, inclusion, and support for community members living with dementia
  • Improve knowledge, confidence and the capacity of community organisations, allied health and aged care professionals to respond to the needs of community members living with dementia
  • Identify gaps in current services

At the announcement Minister for Indigenous Affairs Ken Wyatt stated, “as researchers continue to explore the causes and contributing factors behind the higher prevalence of dementia among our people, this important project will help address this awareness gap and lay the foundation for better local support.”

Consultants will also identify individuals who will receive training, support and mentoring to continue to champion the aims of the project after it ends.

Outcomes and findings from the project will inform future dementia policy.[/vc_column_text][/vc_column][/vc_row]

Australian Researchers Working on Online Tool to Help Women Considering Egg Freezing

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[vc_row][vc_column][vc_column_text]The website would include a questionnaire in which users were asked to write the “pros and cons of egg freezing based on their own personal values.

The quiz will cover a range of topics, including the woman’s understanding of success rates, when they would ideally like to become a parent and whether they would have regrets if they didn’t give egg freezing a go.

The decision aid will then provide feedback along the lines of ‘it looks like egg freezing might be for you, or not.

Currently, women are relying on information from commercial providers and internet sources such as unmoderated forums and blogs. [/vc_column_text][/vc_column][/vc_row]

KEY FACTOR: PARTY PREFERENCES

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[vc_row][vc_column][vc_column_text]Voters ultimately make the decision as to who they preference, but many often follow the how-to-vote cards handed out by parties on election day.

As it stands, the Coalition has made a potentially valuable deal with Mr Clive Palmer’s United Australia Party. Mr Palmer will preference the Coalition second across all 151 lower-house seats and in return the Coalition will preference the United Australia party either second or third in the Senate.

The ALP criticised this move, with Senator Anthony Chisholm, who was accused of seeking a deal with Mr Palmer, commenting that Mr Palmer is ‘chaotic and dishonest’ and that ‘at no stage did I negotiate or offer Mr Palmer anything in regard to preferences. I was not authorised to offer anything, and I didn’t’.

Amongst other news concerning her party this election, Senator Pauline Hanson announced that One Nation would be giving preferential treatment to some Liberal candidates and all Nationals MPs.

Despite the controversy that surrounded Senator Fraser Anning and the subsequent resolution by the Morrison Government that One Nation would be preferenced last across the country, the Liberal National Party in Queensland will direct preferences to One Nation ahead of Labor and the Greens in some seats.

In a statement to the media, Deputy Prime Minister and Leader of the Nationals, the Hon Michael McCormack MP, said that the deal made sense, saying ‘the fact is Pauline Hanson acknowledges that our policies are more closely aligned with the interests and wants of her voters than the Greens or Labor’.

In response, the Prime Minister, the Hon Scott Morrison MP, distanced the Liberals from the Nationals, stating, ‘we’re two separate parties … The One Nation Party have made their decision, the Nationals have made their decision. So that’s a matter for the National Party’.[/vc_column_text][vc_zigzag][/vc_column][/vc_row][vc_row][vc_column][vc_column_text]

THESE INSIGHTs WERE PROVIDED BY THE TEAM AT NEXUS PUBLIC AFFAIRS.

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Industry key to boosting health and medical research

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[vc_row][vc_column][vc_column_text]The health industry’s R&D, including clinical trials, is a key contributor to Australia’s economy. The signatories of this media release – from the medical technologies, biotechnologies and pharmaceuticals industry sector and the health and medical research sector – urge all political parties to adopt a common approach to R&D and to take action to support health and medical research by supporting the conditions that allow industry to do its part.

Australia’s life sciences sector has been adding more than $4 billion gross value per annum (2010 – 2015) to Australia’s economy, employs over 230,000 people, and is a world leader with a strong track record in developing new therapies to combat devastating disease.

The annual Australian businesses expenditure on R&D (BERD) declined by more than $2 billion (12%) per annum between 2014 and 2016 (the latest period for which data is available). It is now at levels not seen since the global financial crisis. AusBiotech’s 2019 research also shows that over the past 12 months there has been a ‘stinging’ drop in the industry’s confidence that the operating environment (economic conditions and public policy) was conducive to growing a biotech business (37% to 14%) and a strong increase in the view that the operating environment was working against the industry (16% to 26%). Parliamentarians (present and future) can take action today by committing to support businesses investing in R&D: the key to boosting BERD.

BERD is critical to health and medical research, and all Australians – from bench, to business, to bedside – will benefit when this declining trajectory is reversed.

Supporting BERD supports the country’s overall GDP. Government needs to increase Australia’s R&D expenditure to three per cent of GDP in the short to medium term – a desirable pursuit which will help to discover new life-enhancing technologies and improve existing ones. We note Labor’s commitment yesterday to “making the R&D tax incentive work” and their target of devoting three per cent of GDP to research. Increasing expenditure in R&D will benefit the full health and medical research pipeline. Australia will be able to facilitate innovative technological developments and capitalise on the benefits the technologies bring if it further enhances the current R&D and business conditions that exist here.

To reverse this trend in declining R&D expenditure, we urge that the R&D Tax Incentive (RDTI) is preserved for the sector. Utilising tax incentives will ensure that Australia realises the social and economic benefits from R&D investment, before a tax incentive can be obtained. The R&D Tax Incentive is the most critical centre-piece programme for raising business investment in R&D and for the translation of Australia’s world-class research into treatments, cures, diagnostics, medical devices and vaccines. The programme has been successful in attracting more long-term investment in R&D, creating highly-skilled jobs, and fostering a strong Australian life sciences clinical trials and R&D sector within a globally competitive space. The structure of the RDTI is a significant and valuable economic activator.

Committing to preserving the R&D Tax Incentive for the sector would enable government to make an immediate contribution to creating high-value jobs, attracting clinical research, growing the economy, and improving health outcomes for Australians. Beyond the economic benefit to Australia, the life science industry’s R&D is developing life enhancing and saving interventions around the world, allowing Australia to continue to thrive as a home for some of the world’s most talented scientists and medical researchers, and improve its position as a centre for high-quality medical R&D.

The intellectual property (IP) developed during R&D and underpinning the value of cutting-edge technologies is globally portable. The proposed Australian Innovation and Manufacturing (AIM) incentive has been developed as a complementary tax incentive policy to support and retain home-grown IP locally, and to support manufacturing and innovation. It encourages the research activities funded by Australia to stay in Australia long term, instead of going offshore. Australian-based companies can choose from multiple countries all operating with no or low tax jurisdictions. To remain globally competitive, Australia needs to adopt a comparable solution. The AIM incentive is amongst one of a few policies that would create favourable economic conditions to help address this need.[/vc_column_text][vc_separator][vc_column_text]

This pre-election statement was issued by MTAA, AusBiotech, Medicines Australia, ARCS Australia, Research Australia, BioMelbourne Network, and Biomedical Research Victoria.

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Into the Home Stretch!!

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[vc_row][vc_column][vc_column_text]There were 3 polls out this week; Newspoll, Ipsos and Essential. While all 3 polls had the ALP narrowly in front on a two-party preferred basis, they also had both major parties on a primary vote below where either would want to be, making it difficult to claim they were on track for victory.

It just reinforces the fact that minor party preferences in key states, led by Queensland, will be crucial to who ultimately wins the 76 seats required to form Government.

Both the ALP and LNP are sitting on a primary vote of below 40%, meaning, on average across the nation, 25% of the electorate will be voting for minor parties in the House of Representatives.

In some seats in Queensland that number will be even higher, at 30% plus of the vote given the influence of One Nation, Palmer’s United Australia Party and Katter’s Australia Party.

While the polls are always interesting to watch, the betting markets also provide an alternative perspective on how the major parties are tracking.

Here is a take across 3 betting markets:[/vc_column_text][vc_single_image image=”3141″ img_size=”full” add_caption=”yes”][/vc_column][/vc_row][vc_row][vc_column][vc_column_text]Across these 3 markets, Labor has an average of 76% chance of being elected. There is one punter out there that is so sure of a Labor victory that they have bet $1 million for Bill Shorten to win, which if correct, could see that punter win an estimated $1.23 million.

Just like polling, betting markets are an interesting indicator, but they are not 100% accurate.

Are betting markets a superior predictor to electoral polling? I will leave that for the academics to argue.

There are some interesting takeaways that have been published in recent days though.

Across the 3 betting markets, Labor is at odds of $1.10 or less to win in 59 seats compared to the LNP with 34 seats.

Of the remaining electorates, Labor is favourite in 23. If the betting markets are right, that means Labor is on track to win 82 seats, 6 more than the majority of 76 needed to form Government.

This would also represent a net pick up of 10 seats for the ALP. While 82 seats would definitely be a comfortable majority to govern with, it would be by no means a landslide victory.

Let’s look at some of the odds in some key seats under threat from independents.

Tony Abbott’s seat of Warringah, both Abbott and Zali Steggall are at $1.88 each.

The seat of Wentworth, the Liberals’ Dave Sharma is favourite at $1.25 versus sitting member Kerryn Phelps at $3.55.

In the seat of Farrer, held by former health minister, Sussan Ley, Kevin Mack the independent challenger is marginally in front at $1.80 versus $1.85 for Ley.

Cowper sees former MP and independent Rob Oakshott at $1.55 versus $2.20 for the Nationals’ candidate.

Indi being vacated by Cath McGowan, has the Coalition on track to regain the seat at odds of $1.40 versus $2.70 for the independent McGowan is supporting.[/vc_column_text][vc_zigzag][/vc_column][/vc_row][vc_row][vc_column width=”1/4″][vc_single_image image=”1915″ img_size=”full”][/vc_column][vc_column width=”3/4″][vc_column_text]

ABOUT THE AUTHOR

Jody Fassina is the Managing Director of Insight Strategy and has served as a strategic adviser to MedTech and pharmaceutical stakeholders.[/vc_column_text][/vc_column][/vc_row]

HOW WILL THE SENATE LOOK AFTER THE 2019 ELECTION?

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[vc_row][vc_column][vc_column_text]At the 2016 double dissolution election, a lower threshold for election of individual senators led to an influx of minor parties and crossbench candidates entering the 45th Parliament. This led to the election of a record number of crossbenchers.

This year’s half-Senate election will likely lead to a rebalancing back towards the major parties as many of the crossbench senators who just achieved the required number of votes in 2016 (due to the nature of a double dissolution election) are up for re-election this year.

Approximately three-quarters of the crossbench (including the Greens) will face re-election at this year’s election.

With Greens members making up six of the twelve crossbench senators facing re-election, it remains to be seen what this election will mean for their power in the Senate.

Other key senators facing re-election include:

  • Senator Derryn Hinch (Derryn Hinch Justice Party)
  • Senator Peter Georgiou (Pauline Hanson’s One Nation)
  • Senator Fraser Anning (Independent)
  • Senator Brian Burston (United Australia Party)
  • Senator Tim Storer (Independent), and
  • Senator Duncan Spender (Liberal Democrats).

HOW DO SENATE ELECTIONS WORK?

The Senate, which was established as a ‘House of Review’, is made up of 12 senators from each state and two senators from each territory. In the states, senators are elected for a six-year term with half of the senators facing re-election at each standard election. The two senators representing each of the territories face re-election at every standard election.

As a result, at a half-Senate election, six Senate seats in each state and the two Senate seats in each territory will be contested.

For a Senate candidate to be elected at the 2019 Federal Election, they will have to achieve approximately one-seventh of the total number of votes for that state. This is known as a quota.

The 2016 double dissolution election differed from this standard process due to all senators facing election. This election will reset the Senate electoral cycle as any senator who is elected at the 2019 election will receive a six-year term, as is normal with a half-Senate election and therefore would not face re-election until the 2025 election, assuming that the next two Parliaments run for full terms.

HOW MANY VOTES TO ELECT A SENATOR

A quota is determined by taking the total number of electors in a state or territory and dividing it by the number of senators that are to be elected, plus one.

The purpose of having an equal number of senators for each state was so that each state had an equal voice.

This has provided for a long-standing point of debate, as it is perceived to gives voters in the smaller states a more powerful vote than those in the larger states.

For example, at the last half-Senate election which occurred in 2013, the number of votes required to elect a Tasmanian senator was approximately 48,000 while the number of votes required to elect a NSW senator was approximately 625,000.

THE SENATE BALLOT PAPER AND THE ALLOCATION OF PREFERENCES

For Senate elections, voters receive a ballot paper on which they can either vote above the line by party only, or vote below the line by individual candidate.

When voting above the line, parties decide the order in which their candidates are allocated the votes. Once the first candidate on their ticket has achieved a single quota, the excess vote is then transferred to the next candidate on the party ticket.

Senators who do not receive a full quota are sequentially eliminated starting with the candidate with the least votes.

Where a candidate is eliminated, their votes are transferred to other candidates based on the individual voter’s preferences.

This means that senators that do not achieve a quota in their own right may still be elected if there is a sufficient preference flow towards them from other candidates.[/vc_column_text][vc_zigzag][vc_column_text]

These insightS were provided by the team at Nexus Public Affairs.

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MedTech to Assist in Aboriginal Medical Services

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[vc_row][vc_column][vc_column_text]The funding will be delivered via the Government’s Indigenous Australians’ Health Programme and will contribute to new systems to provide better patient care.

The Indigenous Australian’s Health Programme is a signature initiative of the Australian Government and aims to provide Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander people with access to effective high quality, comprehensive, culturally appropriate, primary health care services in urban, regional, rural and remote locations across Australia.

Including through Aboriginal Community Controlled Health Services, wherever possible and appropriate, as well as services across the entire health system that deliver comprehensive, culturally appropriate primary health care.

The Minister for Indigenous Health, the Hon Ken Wyatt MP said the Federal Government is committed to working with Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander people and communities to develop practical, evidence-based policy and deliver programs that will make a real difference to the lives of First Australians.[/vc_column_text][/vc_column][/vc_row]

Victorian Governments New Flagship Hospital Built

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[vc_row][vc_column][vc_column_text]The state-of-the-art hospital will offer local women and their families world-class maternity and pediatric services. It will also contain the regions first neonatal intensive care unit to care for the most critically ill babies.

The hospital will hold:

  • 20 maternity delivery rooms
  • 237 beds
  • 39 special care nursery cots
  • four theatres and additional clinics
  • 150 extra full-time nurses and midwives

Victorian Minister for Health Jenny Mikakos stated, “more families in Melbourne’s west will be able to access the best pediatric and maternity services close to home thanks to the Joan Kirner Women’s and Children’s Hospital.”

Joan Kirner was premier from 1990 – 94 and the state’s first and only female elected to the top job. Kirner was inducted into the Victorian Honour Roll of Women at the time of her death in 2001.[/vc_column_text][/vc_column][/vc_row]